Lainey Wilson just broke the record for the largest crowd in New York State Fair concert history, drawing a whopping 53,200 country fans to Suburban Park on Wednesday night.
It smashed the previous record of 43,000, set by rapper Nelly just a year ago at the same stage, and bucked the trend of hip-hop becoming the biggest draw at the NYS Fair. It’s also nearly double the previous record for the largest country concert at the New York State Fair, when Florida Georgia Line played to 31,500 fairgoers at Chevy Court in 2013. (Heads up: Tyler Hubbard is playing Suburban Park on Aug. 29.)
That raises a lot of questions: Who is Lainey Wilson? How did she break the record, and by so much? And how do they calculate crowd size at a free concert, anyway? Let us explain.
Wilson, 31, is one of the hottest artists in country music right now. She won Best New Artist and Female Vocalist of the Year at the CMA Awards last year and won four awards at this year’s ACM Awards, including Album of the Year and Female Artist of the Year.
She’s a singer-songwriter known for hits like “Things a Man Oughta Know,” “Heart Like a Truck” (which appeared in a Ram truck commercial), “Watermelon Moonshine,” “Wait in the Truck” (with Hardy), “Never Say Never” (with Cole Swindell), “Save Me” (with Jelly Roll), and a cover of 4 Non Blondes’ “What’s Up (What’s Going On).” Five of her songs have reached the top 10 on the country charts, and she also appeared on multiple episodes of Kevin Costner’s popular TV series, “Yellowstone,” performing “Smell Like Smoke” as Abby on the show.
Lainey Wilson performs on the Suburban Park stage on opening day of the New York State Fair, Geddes, N.Y., Wednesday, August 23, 2023. Scott Schild | sschild@syracuse.com Scott Schild | sschild@syracuse.com
Here’s the wild thing: She’s not a crossover artist (yet) like Morgan Wallen and Luke Combs — none of her songs have hit the top 25 on the Billboard Hot 100 — and she’s not a household name (yet) like Blake Shelton, Carrie Underwood and Tim McGraw. If you don’t listen to country music often, you could easily ask “Who?” and still be bewildered by the huge crowd at the Fair.
“This is absolutely insane,” Wilson said at one point, looking out at the sea of people.
But it’s not insane, and here’s why.
Wilson is a fantastic performer. She sounds better live than on her albums, with a voice that soars all the way to the back of the crowd and a great blend of retro and modern country with Southern rock that she calls “Bell Bottom Country.” (The sound at Suburban Park is extremely well put together so you can hear everything, even past the pond at the back of the Midway.) She talks to her fans, takes selfies with them, signs autographs, and thanks them for dressing up in hats and bell bottoms. She smiles constantly, spreads positive messages for young girls about self-acceptance, and speaks earnestly and humbly about growing up in Louisiana and pursuing a music career in Nashville.
Lainey Wilson performs on the Suburban Park stage on opening day of the New York State Fair, Geddes, N.Y., Wednesday, August 23, 2023. Scott Schild | sschild@syracuse.com Scott Schild | sschild@syracuse.com
The New York State Fair also booked Wilson at exactly the right time, like when Bruno Mars performed in 2011 (35,000 at Chevy Court) or A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie in 2018 (40,000 at Chevy Court). She’s been building her audience steadily over the past few years, opening for Wallen at his sold-out St. Joseph’s Health Amphitheater at Lakeview last summer and selling out her own “Country with a Flare” show at Kegs Canalside in Jordan this past February. So when there’s a chance to see these artists for free — NYS Fair concerts are free with admission, which is just $6 (and free for kids under 12 and seniors 65 and over) — thousands will seize the opportunity.
Other factors come into play, too. The weather was “Goldilocks” perfect Wednesday night (not too hot or cold), there were no competing shows at St. Joe’s Amp or other major venues, and she had the ideal timeslot of 8 p.m. at the Fair’s biggest stage. (On a weekday, that’s important for jobs; Salt-N-Pepa had 16,000 fans at Chevy Court at 6 p.m., but could’ve easily had more with an 8 p.m. performance.)
The NYS Fair also sometimes dilutes crowds by booking too many shows of one genre, like classic rock or country. If there’s only one or two big shows in your genre of choice, you’re more likely to make sure that’s the day you go to the NYS Fair. That’s not the case this year, as many genres and eras are well-represented; other country concerts on the 2023 schedule include Matt Stell (Aug. 27, 6 p.m. at Chevy Court), Tyler Hubbard (Aug. 29, 8 p.m. at Suburban Park), Chapel Hart (Aug. 30, 6 p.m. at Chevy Court), Lee Greenwood (Aug. 31, 6 p.m. at Chevy Court), Danielle Bradbery (Sept. 1, 2 p.m. at Suburban Park) and Elvie Shane (Sept. 3, 2 p.m. at Suburban Park) — but only Wilson and Hubbard are likely a must-see for modern country fans.
OK, but how do they come up with crowd size numbers?
Attendance at free concerts is estimated by the New York State Fair using a formula that largely centers on estimating crowd sizes in various sections of Chevy Court and Suburban Park, and then adding them up.
In 2018, fair officials showed how Chevy Court is broken up into grids, including the seating area, grassy areas surrounding the seats, the courtyard by the Chevy Court Pavilion, the paved areas in front of the Center of Progress Building and the Dairy Products building. At least three staffers do the counting, accounting for circumstances such as traffic that may force some concert-goers to be late, and they compare figures during or after the second half of a performance. Then-acting director Troy Waffner told syracuse.com | The Post-Standard that estimating the crowd in each section as a percentage of the maximum capacity figure leads to a final number that’s likely accurate within five percent.
All of the crowd estimates are done the same way, too, so even if you want to disagree with the exact numbers, you can’t argue with certain shows being bigger than others — especially when it’s 10,000 more than the previous record. Atta girl, Lainey.
Here are the top 20 largest crowds in New York State Fair concert history:
No. 1: Lainey Wilson — 53,200 at Suburban Park in 2023
No. 2: Nelly — 43,000 at Chevy Park in 2022
No. 3: A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie — 40,610 at Chevy Court in 2018
No. 4: City Girls - 39,000 at Chevy Park in 2022
No. 5: Foreigner - 38,000 at Chevy Park in 2022
No. 6: Steve Miller Band — 36,900 at Chevy Court in 2015
No. 7: AJR — 36,397 people at Chevy Park in 2021
No. 8: Bruno Mars — 35,000 at Chevy Court in 2011
No. 9: ZZ Top — 33,875 at Chevy Court in 2018
No. 10: Nelly — 33,713 at Chevy Park in 2021
No. 11: Migos — 31,900 at Chevy Court in 2017
No. 12: Ludacris (tie) — 31,500 at Chevy Court in 2018
No. 12: Florida Georgia Line (tie) — 31,500 at Chevy Court in 2013
No. 14: Chicago — 31,200 at Chevy Court in 2016
No. 15: Nas — 30,750 at Chevy Court in 2015
No. 16: REO Speedwagon — 30,511 at Chevy Park in 2021
No. 17: Dropkick Murphys — 30,200 at Chevy Court in 2019
No. 18: TLC (tie) - 30,000 at Chevy Park in 2022
No. 18: Sonny & Cher (tie) — 30,000 at Empire Court in 1972
No. 18: Lady A (tie) — 30,000 at Chevy Court in 2010
Note: Chevy Park was renamed Suburban Park this year.
All attendance figures provided by New York State Fair. Concerts at Suburban Park and Chevy Court are free with admission to the fair.